Monday, August 29, 2005

The Time Has Come!

College football season is here! Before anyone reading this thinks I am Tim Brando, hold on a sec. First, I am aware that there is more football out there than the SEC. I am also aware that Louisiana is not the greatest college football state out there. I enjoy college because A)These guys aren't getting paid (as much) B) It may be the easiest sport to gamble on in America. Some people and even publications I have read have stated the time to make money in college is in the first 3 weeks of the season. That can and cannot be true. Last year, for instance week one, Texas A+M was listed as a favorite with the linesmakers going into Utah. Smart gamblers(wiseguys if you will, although everytime I hear that I think of people getting smacked around and having their pizza business burned to the ground) were all over Utah and Vegas took a bath. 2 years ago it was Cal lambasting Michigan State as a 14 pt dog. This year, who knows? Well, I think I do. Here are some Thursday Night week one snapshots.

Buffalo at UConn (-18)
Buffalo on the road? Against a UConn team that is coming off a bowl win? and it's less than 3 td's? Can I give you the deed to my house may be the next question your asking, but look at this before you start thinking about moving to Beverly Hills.

UConn is 3-2 against the spread Vs. Buffalo since 1992, and against a team like Buff, that isn't as good as you would think.
Uconn is 1-6 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points the last 3 years
The Betting Public is only correct %30 of the time when moving the line in Buffalo games the last 3 years (6-14)

Personally, I am laying off this game, even though it fits into my "Bet on bad teams on the road if the line is 35 or less" system, mainly because UConn is going to have a new QB and will be playing on Thursday, where they haven't been a big money maker lately. If someone put a gun to my head, I would take the Buffs.

Oregon @Houston (+8.5)

Oregon 12-26 on the road as 3.5 to 10 point favorite. Houston has the O to hang with them, at least within a TD. Gimme the Cougars + 8.5

Temple @ Arizona St (-27)

This is going to be the biggest rout of the night. Arizona St is, in the words of Randy Moss, "Straight Cash, Homey!" at home. they were 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread last year, and Temple only has 5 starters returning on the "O". It will be hot, and Temple will be down 14 less than 5 minutes in.

Eastern Michigan @ Cincy (-10)

This might beat AZ ST as the rout of this night. Eastern Michigan is 2-14 against the number in non-conference games since 1992. Cincy played some good football last year and with this being their first year in the Big East, they are going to want to blow this team away, hoping the rest of the Big Least gets worried. Besides they were 4-2 against the number at home last year while Eastern Mich was 3-3 ats on the road. Of course of those three ATS wins, 2 were against Ball St and Western Michigan, both of whom suck worse than a hooker with lockjaw and buckteeth, and the other was a 21 point loss to Bowling Green when the number was at an obscene 28.5. Cincy will drop the bomb on these guys and it won't be pretty to watch, unless your cashing your ticket with Cincy at the end. Cincy -10

I will go over the Friday and Saturday boards later on. Just to explain what I do in College Football...

I look for teams that were less than .500 against the number last year going on the road against teams that were .500 or better. I Only bet on HOME TEAMS in college in this system. I only stray to play Miami against Fl St (Money) Boise St as a Dog (week One) or Louisville against anyone. I also love double digit home dogs getting revenge from a loss the previous year (This fits the UTEP/NM ST game perfectly. Although I think UTEP is going to be money this year, I don't think they get the cover in this game).

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